If you are into IT you might be stumbled accross the concept of “Hypecycles” which is the preferred way for Gartner to position a particular technology. The basic idea is that every technology goes through different stages of visibility and maturity:

Altough Gartner has some articles on Ajax and Web2.0 I couldn’t find this topic on their hypecycle yet. However, Technorati helps by providing some fine statistics. Here you can see the number of blog articles which mention the term Ajax for the last year (173,264 in total):

We clearly can see a peak in February/March 2006 and a fall-off afterwards. What can we infer from that? Well, we know that the term was coined on Feb. 18th, 2005 by James Garret so according to the typical Hypecycle Ajax needed a little more than a year to reach the “peak of inflated expectation” (in Gartner speak). I guess it will take another year to reach the stage “Trhough of disillusionment” with some sort of stabilisation aftwerwards. In contrast to the hypecylce-visibility the frequency of mentions in online-articles will probably not rise again from there on. How often do you see “hot topic” articles on DBMSs nowadays (clearly a matured technology)?